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When I wrote the article "Is Banking Tanking?" in early December last year, the banking sector was rallying like every other sector. Well, almost. The only cloud on the horizon: it had gone from a leading sector to a laggard sector since the June 2006 low. In that article I predicted a top for the sector near the end of January 2007. It actually came in on February 20, 2007 - so I was out by about three weeks. And I guess folk who had read the article had dismissed it by then, or - more likely - completely forgotten it. But fast-forward to today and banking really is tanking! When I wrote that original article there was no sign of banking tanking. That was then, but now? Yes banking really is tanking. In fact, about 10 trading days ago it began a near-vertical slide south. I've analyzed the BIX chart and data, and believe it could slide another 20% yet, and ultimately bottom out around 290. That would be 30% below the February high of 414.84. The current near-vertical plunge could take BIX all the way to 290 in a few crazy days of panic. It COULD, but I doubt it will. What's much more likely is a traditional A-B-C decline in a double zigzag form. We should be very near concluding the slide to point A of the zigzag. A bounce should unfold next to point B (likely to be near 390), followed by the next slide south to under 300. We're approaching 355, which has been support or resistance on 10 occasions since early 2004. I expect BIX to form a bottom within the next week in the 345 - 355 range, then bounce strongly in a zig-zag to near 390. This impending rally could last to anywhere from mid-October to the years end. After that bounce another dramatic plummet south should unfold. Only this time I expect the major US indexes to join the plunge south in earnest. Something like eight or more consecutive down days for the DJI, including a few dramatic ones, is what I have in mind (more on that in an upcoming article: "Seven Years Bad Luck"). But that may be next year. Right now we are about to enter what may be the last good buying opportunity in US markets for a long time to come. In the immediate term BIX should not drop below 345 in any persistent way. If it does, even I will be frightened as the only suitable explanation that comes to mind is that dreaded five-letter word: CRASH! I don't think we're heading there - at least not yet. But I may be wrong. This is certainly no time for complacency. Volatility is back! Yes, I predicted that as well - in my November 2006 article: "Outlook For 2007 And Beyond". View the full version of this article, including a chart of BIX and links to the other articles mentioned, at www.TrendSensor.com/MarketBrief/ DISCLOSURE: Murray Nickel holds no position in BIX.
Murray Nickel is a mathematician, statistician, and professional trend trader. He offers a free trial of trading signals for global market indexes and index ETFs, spot Forex, and spot Gold. He also mentors trend traders aiming to succeed at trading global markets. Click here for other unique stock markets articles.
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